Kenya is bracing for a possible return of the El Niño weather phenomenon later in 2026, the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has warned. According to its latest El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) outlook, the first half of the year is expected to remain relatively stable, but a shift toward El Niño conditions could begin around mid-year.
The report projects a 58–61 per cent probability of El Niño developing between June and December, with effects likely intensifying during the October–November–December (OND) short rains. “This could enhance rainfall, particularly in eastern and central Kenya, potentially alleviating dry season deficits but increasing flooding risks in vulnerable river basins,” the KMD noted.
Counties expected to receive above-normal rainfall include Kitui, Machakos, Makueni, Meru, Murang’a, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Kiambu, Nyandarua, and some coastal highlands like Kilifi, Kwale, and Taita Taveta. Parts of the Rift Valley, including Nakuru, Narok, and Bomet, may also experience localized heavier rains.
El Niño, a natural climate pattern marked by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, occurs every two to seven years. It disrupts global atmospheric circulation, often triggering extreme weather events such as droughts and floods while raising global temperatures.
The forecast is probabilistic, meaning the extent and impact of El Niño will depend on ocean temperature trends in the coming months. While heavier rains could improve crop yields and hydropower generation, authorities caution about challenges including flooding, infrastructure strain, and increased risk of vector-borne diseases. In drier regions, the report recommends drought-tolerant crops, water harvesting, conflict resolution, and livelihood support programmes, including cash transfers, to protect food security and reduce migration pressures.
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