Kenya could face another El Niño season later this year, with forecasts pointing to possible development between May and July 2026. Experts expect the phenomenon to strengthen toward the end of the year.
The World Meteorological Organization has flagged rising sea-surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific as a key signal. These conditions often trigger above-normal rainfall across the Horn of Africa, including Kenya.
In its latest update, the agency said climate models now show strong alignment after a neutral start to the year. This shift has increased confidence in the likely onset of El Niño from mid-2026.
Wilfran Moufouma Okia stated that forecasts indicate a high probability of development followed by intensification in subsequent months. The warning places regional authorities on alert.
Kenya has previously suffered severe impacts during El Niño periods. The 2023–2024 season caused widespread flooding, infrastructure damage, and loss of lives across multiple counties.
Earlier events, including the 1997–98 rains, also led to major destruction. Floods cut off communities, destroyed roads and bridges, and disrupted livelihoods for weeks.
The Kenya Meteorological Department has cautioned that forecasts do not guarantee a disaster. However, it stressed that early preparedness remains critical as warning signs continue to build.
Authorities are now expected to monitor developments closely. Early planning could reduce risks and limit the potential impact if the rains intensify later in the year.
