Fuel Rationing Looms as Fuel Prices Expected to Hike Amid Middle East Crisis

Kenya and other African countries could suffer the most from ongoing fuel supply disruptions triggered by the escalating conflict in the Middle East, according to Trade Cabinet Secretary Moses Kuria.

Kuria warned that many African countries lack sufficient fuel reserves and alternative supply routes, leaving the continent highly exposed to global oil shocks. He said Africa’s limited strategic stockpiles make it particularly vulnerable during major disruptions in global energy supply.

The crisis intensified after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil shipping routes. Before the escalation in hostilities, the narrow passage handled nearly 20 per cent of global daily oil shipments.

The disruption followed heightened tensions in the ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran. Since early March, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declared the strait effectively closed to most commercial vessels, warning that unauthorised ships risk attack.

Shipping traffic through the waterway has reportedly dropped by nearly 97 per cent since the conflict escalated in late February. The disruption has raised fears of delayed oil shipments to countries that rely heavily on Middle Eastern crude supplies.

Kenya is among the nations closely monitoring the situation, particularly as the country expects a fuel shipment scheduled to arrive in Mombasa later in April. Any delay could potentially trigger supply shortages and higher fuel prices.

Kuria also criticised the lack of a coordinated energy strategy by the African Union, saying African nations remain largely unprepared for such shocks.

Global oil prices have already reacted to the crisis. According to data highlighted in a bulletin by the Central Bank of Kenya, Murban crude rose sharply to about $92 per barrel on March 12 from $76 just a week earlier.

Economic analysts have warned that African economies could face severe consequences if the disruption continues. Kwame Owino said governments must prepare for what he described as a potentially “catastrophic scenario,” especially if fuel prices continue to surge.

Meanwhile, Daniel Kiptoo confirmed that authorities are closely tracking incoming shipments and exploring alternative fuel sources from countries such as India and Oman in an effort to prevent shortages.